ドイツのジレンマ
於保です。
先日、S&Pによってギリシャとポルトガルのソブリン格付けが引き下げられた。
ポルトガルはAマイナス、ギリシャがBBプラス。
ソブリン格付けがBBプラスというのはジャンクレベルに相当し、投機対象になる可能性のあるものです。
そもそも、ソブリンとは何か？
その場その場で意味するところに差異はあるかと思いますが、今回の場合は「国債」を意味しています。
債券と言われるものには、いくつか種類がある。
発行体によって分ければ、国債、地方債、社債、財投機関債などがあり、言うまでもなく、これらの中で最も信用力が高いのが国債、すなわちソブリン債。
このソブリンがBBプラスというのは、ある意味国家をマネーゲームの対象としてみなしているといっても過言ではないと思います。
現在ドイツがかなり支援に慎重姿勢をとっていて、ギリシャ支援がスムーズに前に進まない。
にもかかわらず、ギリシャは５月１９日に国債の大量償還（約１兆円）を迎えるので、このまま支援が進まなければ完全にアウト、デフォルトです。
何故ドイツが支援を渋るのか？理由の一つは、５月９日に地方選挙が迫っており、メルケル政権側が不利になる政策を取りたくないからでしょう。
ギリシャ支援にはかなりのリスクが伴う→最大の資金拠出国ドイツが慎重姿勢→S&Pによるジャンクレベルへの引き下げ→ドイツがさらに慎重姿勢をとる、というかなり危ない状況です。
自国内での安全策をとるか、EU全体危機の一時回避をとるか、スケールの大きいジレンマです。
ドイツでは選挙後の９日から１９日に出資を行うという策が有力であり、ギリシャはリスクを回避するためにIMFに出資要請を行っているのが現状です。
出資を要請されたIMFの動向には注目ですね。
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